LOW-FREQUENCY PHYSICAL VARIATIONS IN THE COASTAL ZONE OF UBATUBA, NORTHERN COAST OF SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL

Sea level (SL), wind, air temperature (AT) and sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the coastal region of Ubatuba, northern coast of Sao Paulo, are assessed. A Lanczos-square cosine filter, with a 40-hour window, was applied over the SL time series between 1978 and 2000, except for the period comprising 1984 to 1986. In order to study subtidal effects on mean sea level (MSL), SL numerical filtering indicated that there was a virtually complete removal of semidiurnal and diurnal astronomical tidal components over the period of study. Results indicated an average raw SL rise of 2.3 mm/year, whereas average filtered MSL was of the order of 0.7 mm/year. Despite the overall positive MSL trend, the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years seemed to be the explanation for the SL series pattern. Correlations between MSL and parallel wind had a maximum correlation coefficient around 0.6, with 99% statistical confidence, while MSL and perpendicular wind correlations were not statistically significant. These results may be explained by Ekman dynamics. Data records of AT and SST between 1990 and 2003 showed positive trends for both variables. During this period, AT rose about 0.087 degrees C /year for the raw series and 0.085 degrees C /year for the monthly time series, and SST showed a rise of 0.047 degrees C /year and 0.046 degrees C/year, for the raw and monthly time series, respectively. The monthly climatology for both AT and SST showed higher values in February with 27.79 degrees C and 28.59 degrees C for AT and SST, respectively, and the lowest in July with 21.12 degrees C for AT and 21.91 degrees C for SST. (AU)