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(Referência obtida automaticamente do Web of Science, por meio da informação sobre o financiamento pela FAPESP e o número do processo correspondente, incluída na publicação pelos autores.)

Local risk perception enhances epidemic control

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Autor(es):
Herrera-Diestra, Jose L. [1, 2, 3] ; Meyers, Lauren Ancel [4]
Número total de Autores: 2
Afiliação do(s) autor(es):
[1] Univ Estadual Paulista, IFT, Sao Paulo - Brazil
[2] ICTP South Amer Inst Fundamental Res, Sao Paulo - Brazil
[3] Univ Los Andes, Fac Ingn, CeSiMo, Merida - Venezuela
[4] Univ Texas Austin, Dept Integrat Biol, Austin, TX 78712 - USA
Número total de Afiliações: 4
Tipo de documento: Artigo Científico
Fonte: PLoS One; v. 14, n. 12 DEC 3 2019.
Citações Web of Science: 1
Resumo

As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual willingness to take precautions may be influenced by global factors, such as news media, or local factors, such as infected family members or friends. Here, we compare three modes of epidemiological decision-making in the midst of a growing outbreak using network-based mathematical models that capture plausible heterogeneity in human contact patterns. Individuals decide whether to adopt a recommended intervention based on overall disease prevalence, the proportion of social contacts infected, or the number of social contacts infected. While all strategies can substantially mitigate transmission, vaccinating (or self isolating) based on the number of infected acquaintances is expected to prevent the most infections while requiring the fewest intervention resources. Unlike the other strategies, it has a substantial herd effect, providing indirect protection to a large fraction of the population. (AU)

Processo FAPESP: 17/00344-2 - Aproximação de redes complexas para análise de séries temporais
Beneficiário:Jose Luis Herrera Diestra
Linha de fomento: Bolsas no Brasil - Pós-Doutorado
Processo FAPESP: 16/01343-7 - ICTP Instituto Sul-Americano para Física Fundamental: um centro regional para física teórica
Beneficiário:Nathan Jacob Berkovits
Linha de fomento: Auxílio à Pesquisa - Temático