Crescimento populacional, vulnerabilidade e adaptação: dimensões sociais e ecológicas das mudanças climáticas no litoral de São Paulo

Resumo

This project seeks to lay the groundwork for the long-term study of the environmental consequences of climate change on the Coast of Sao Paulo. It asks specific scientific questions about the spatial and demographic constraints which will condition adaptive response to climate change by coastal communities and local-regional governments; about the context of social conflict concerning the appropriation of the region's natural resources and the potential solutions this conflict may generate for resolving the new tensions introduced by climate change; about local and regional governmental actors' knowledge, concern and actions regarding climate change; and about the ecological changes which may occur as a consequence of climate change. While the project is a multi-method, multi-scale research program, which includes all 15 municipalities of the Sao Paulo Coast and Cubatão (socio-economically, geographically and ecologically an integral part of the region, but not directly on the Coast), much of the research will be centered in Caraguatatuba. There, large-scale infrastructure investments in extraction and transportation of offshore oil and gas, planned and now underway, will condition the range of possible mitigation measures, socio-demographic and ecological vulnerabilities and adaptive responses to climate change. While the research team which presents this project has a long history of cooperative research, the complex nature of climate change demands new levels of integration. In associating geospatial, demographic, political, cultural and ecological dimensions within a single project, we seek to advance in the construction of more appropriate paradigms of coupled social and ecological systems. Given its pioneering character, the project will also establish databases designed for future research. (AU)