Assessment of susceptibility to shallow translational landslides in the basin da Ultrafértil, Serra do Mar (SP)

The shallow landslides are frequent in the Serra do Mar, especially when associated with intense rainfall events, as in January 1985 (380 mm in 2 days). When triggered generalized, causing damage to society. Several methods have been proposed to understand the occurrence of these processes in the landscape. The aim of this study is to evaluate the susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Serra do Mar by applying a physically based models, resulting in a stability index, which points in the form of relatively hazard and susceptible areas. The stages of his research were divided in building the Digital Terrain Model in their products derived (angle of slope, curvature, aspect and area of contribution), mapping the scars of 1985 and simulation of susceptibility scenarios. The maps of the parameters topographic, as well as the susceptibility maps were correlated with the scars map and evaluated using the indices of Scars Concentration (SC) and Landslide Potential (LP). 216 scars were mapped into here area of 2.5 km² with an estimated production of 135.525 m³ sediments. The results show that slopes with angles between 30° and 40° with rectilinear curvature were the most susceptible. The area was considered unstable, according to the model in all scenarios, with the best calibration for scenario C2. The use of different methods showed to be satisfactory and consistent when analyzing with these results. Moreover they can assist as tools for decision support in planning the soil use and, especially in regions where much frequent the occurrence of mass movement. Therefore, the result of susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Serra do Mar can help in the mitigation actions and politicaladministrative environment, aiming minimizes the environmental and social impact of future events. (AU)