Hydrological Modelling and adaptation measures assessment under climate change in São Paulo River basins

Abstract

Climate change is a global environmental challenge that affects the earth system in terms of negative impacts on food production, water supply, health, livelihoods and energy. Assessing the impact of climate change is crucial to depict the vulnerability of water resources and to identify adaptation measures that can be implemented to enhance resilience and the capacity to respond to extreme climatic events. Hydrological models can figure as a relevant tool in studies related to climate change which can contribute to the management of water resources since, according to projections by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), it is expected that almost all regions of the world will experience a negative impact of climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems. Several studies evaluating climate change adaptation measures make use of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and/or Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in combination with comprehensive hydrological simulation models. Among the models, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) is a widely used model in this field. This model was developed to verify the effects resulting from changes in land use on surface flow and groundwater flow, as well as on the sediment yield and on the concentration of contaminants, and has been studied and disseminated worldwide, with satisfactory results. The general objective of this project is to identify and quantify the impacts of climate change adaptation measures on water availability and sediment yield in watersheds in the interior of São Paulo using the SWAT model. Additionally, the specific objectives are: i. Simulate hydrological and sediment yield processes, and calibrate and validate the model for local conditions. ii. Quantify water availability and sediment yield in the future under different climate scenarios. iii. Identify the main water resource impacts due to climate change in the study area. iv. Identify the most appropriate adaptation measures to address these challenges and assess the effectiveness of implementing these measures in the study area through the SWAT model.