Resilience of integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems to climate change in the Amazon Biome

Abstract

Climate change represents a threat to the stability of agriculture, negatively impacting climate patterns and water resources. Integrated systems, especially those combining crop cultivation, livestock, and trees, are emerging as a promising approach to address climate uncertainties. Our objective is to develop strategies for achieving resilient and sustainable agricultural systems in the face of these challenges. We hypothesize that system resilience increases with the integration of components (livestock, crop, and forestry), making systems more capable of coping with climate variability. We will assess the resilience of animal, forage, and crop production to climate change and through responses to our hypotheses, we will suggest strategies to improve land use. To validate and simulate scenarios, we will use data from a field experiment conducted in the Amazon biome, evaluating four systems: livestock, livestock-forestry, crop-livestock, and crop-livestock-forestry. Global circulation models and Representative Concentration Paths will be used to create climate change scenarios. The APSIM model will be used to simulate forage, soybean, and maize production scenarios. System resilience will be evaluated considering aspects of productivity and production resistance. With model validation and simulations of future climate scenarios, we will propose practical guidelines that can inform new public policies for the agricultural sector. (AU)