MODELING SCENARIOS OF PASTURE RESTORATION IN BRAZIL: IMPLICATIONS FOR CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVISION

Abstract

This research exchange project aims at producing a set of spatially explicit land-use change projections that allows the evaluation of multiple land management scenarios for the accomplishment of Brazil's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement related to restoration of pastures. Such projections will prioritize the storage of carbon into the soil, alongside with agricultural productivity and a few other ecosystem services. For that sake a land-use change modeling framework will be employed, driven by different cattle ranching management scenarios and beef production demand. Apart from providing recommendations on the best location and management practices, the identification of hotspots of high ecosystem services values will provide an important boundary condition for the implementation (or revision) of Brazil's NDCs related to cattle ranching, in the scope of the FAPESP/Shell-funded Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Innovation (RCGI).