Exploring structural breaks in the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, Argentina, and the United States

Abstract

Brazil is among the countries with the highest number of cases and deaths from COVID-19, with more than 37,449,418 cases and 701,494 deaths by May 2023. However, the evolution of the pandemic is not occurring homogeneously in all Brazilian federative units (27 states and one federal district). Using time series methods, this study intends to identify and analyze comparatively the breakpoints of the fatality rates from COVID-19 in each of the states of Brazil, Argentina and the United States across different demographic age groups and pregnant women. The breakpoints will be identified for all cases of COVID-19 and hospitalized ones for each state and for each wave between March 2020 and December 2022. By estimating the interruptions in fatality rates and the distinct waves in each state, we assess the heterogeneity in the spread and lethality of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we intend to identify variables associated with the breakpoints, mainly related to demographic and socio-economic factors, and the policies and measures adopted to control and mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil including vaccination. (AU)