Cartography of hydrogeomorphological risks for a municipal scale: methodological proposals from the analytical to the synthesis and from the recognition to the detailing of the modeled phenomena

Abstract

This work aims to contribute with a methodological proposal, unprecedented among those published in the scientific community, capable of integrating environmental indicators, which present social, economic, environmental and natural variables, with territorial dynamics, to obtain the Cartography of Hydrogeomorphological Risks (floods and mass movements), to the municipal scale, with a view to helping municipal public policies and the ordering and reordering of the territory. To this end, the methodological proposal is being applied in the Municipality of Rio Claro/RJ (Brazil), first because the area integrates the escarpments between Serra do Mar and Vale do Paraíba and, secondly, because it is a region of undulating relief, which suffered from severe deforestation process since its occupation process, in addition to having high rainfall rates, as well as other areas of the humid tropics of southeastern Brazil. Based on a theoretical conception of systemic landscape investigation, at first, the work adopts as references the theoretical advances of the Brazilian School, by the Research Group on Geotechnologies and Cartography Applied to Geography (GEOCART/CNPq/Brazil), in the study of Vulnerability Socio-environmental, which use Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), associated with Multicriteria Decision Analysis (AMD) and Hierarchical Process Analysis (AHP), as performed in Rizato (2022), to obtain the Socio-environmental Vulnerability Map. But, in a second moment, based on the hypothesis of this work, which are the mathematical-statistical techniques of the EFA, added to the map algebras (AMD-AHP) in the environmental cartographic modeling of the landscape, when weighted and associated with maps of physical aspects (declivity, hypsometry, soil, precipitation and geology) and maps that show the territorial dynamics (land use and occupation - UOS and land use and cover - UTC), as they are considered conditioning factors; that allow the methodological paths, with the environmental indicators, necessary to identify no longer the vulnerabilities, but the areas with socio-environmental risks to hydrogeomorphological phenomena. Faced with the challenge posed, the Cartography Synthesis of Socio-environmental Risks (RSA) will first be prepared, on the recognition scale (1:250,000), where it will be possible to identify all areas with hydrogeomorphological risks in the municipality of Rio Claro/RJ. And, a posteriori, the graphic scenario of the identified risk sectors will be elaborated, in the detailing scale (1:10,000), considering the vertical and horizontal structures of the environment in the urban landscape, as proposed by Zacharias and Ventorini (2021), for mapping aimed at the local scale (detail). At the end of the research, this dense and important methodological contribution will allow not only to understand the landscape in its entirety, but also to provide mappings whose explanatory and propositional analyzes will help the public power in favor of mitigating hydrogeomorphological risks, during the contingency plan ahead to the challenge of drawing up the first municipal master plan. (AU)