Assessment of the socioeconomic and environmental implications of the energy policy related to the Climate Action Plan of the State of São Paulo Net Zero 2050

Abstract

The increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and their recognized effect on climate change, with the potential to bring significant environmental, economic and social damage to humanity, have led countries to establish commitments to reduce their GHG emissions over the next few decades - in many cases, with the commitment to become neutral (in terms of the net emissions) between 2040 and 2060. In this context, the State of São Paulo joined, in 2021, to the Race to Zero Campaign of United Nations (UN) establishing, in 2022, its "Climate Action Plan and sustainable development for São Paulo - PAC 2050", with the purpose of delivering concreteness and guide for planning the actions in acordance to this commitment.Taking into account that the energy sector (including the transport sector) is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases (in global terms and also in the State of São Paulo), as well as its importance associated with economic growth, the main objective of this research is to evaluate (in quantitative terms) the potential socioeconomic impacts in the state of São Paulo as a result of the guidelines to the energy sector and to the transport sector contained in its Climate Action Plan. For this evaluation, a dynamic interregional general equilibrium energy-economy model will be developed and implemented, considering Brazilian economy and the State of São Paulo economy, in such a way that it constitutes an analytical tool to be used for the assessment of public policies in the energy sector of São Paulo State as well as an instrument to contribute to the decision-making process. This research will be carried out at the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) at Victoria University in Melbourne, Australia, recognized as a world leader in the field of computable general equilibrium modeling. (AU)