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Hydrological effects of forest cover changes in Amazon: history and future scenarios

Grant number: 20/15367-0
Support Opportunities:Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
Effective date (Start): May 01, 2023
Effective date (End): October 22, 2024
Field of knowledge:Agronomical Sciences - Forestry Resources and Forestry Engineering - Nature Conservation
Principal Investigator:Silvio Frosini de Barros Ferraz
Grantee:Raíza Salomão Precinoto
Host Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Interactions among forests, water, and energy guarantee ecological functions such as carbon stock, climate regulation, and water resources distribution. Rather than the carbon stock function, hydrological effects related to forest cover changes are currently identified as more important to mitigate the climate and land use cover change effects. This work will analyze the deforestation influence on hydrological processes in Amazon watersheds and then simulate scenarios to assess how such processes may be affected in the future. We will use 31 watersheds ranging from a 30-year-old hydrological and meteorological times series dataset from CAMELS-BR (Chagas et al. 2020) as well as the land use and cover maps by Mapbiomas Amazonia 2.0. In the first stage of this project, we will analyze the historical deforestation influence on the hydrological regime through hydrological indices such as Base Flow Index, Richards-Baker Flashiness Index, Q90, Q10 obtained by flow duration curves calculated from the daily flow. In addition, we will analyze the watersheds' hydrological responsiveness related to deforestation and precipitation regime through the Zhou et al. (2015) hydrological model. After that, we will check the physical factors that may affect the annual flow. Lastly, we will estimate the future annual flow according to the trends in forest cover changes, and taking into account projections of climate change. (AU)

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