Modeling the spatio-temporal land-cover change in cities: integrating green infrastructure improvement and urban sprawl

Abstract

The land-use/land-cover changes, simultaneously with climate change, cause a significant impact on the urban environment and ecosystem services. In this urban century, recognizing and considering in urban planning the strong interactions between social and ecological systems and the multiple benefits of green infrastructure is essential for cities to become more resilient to the impacts of climate change. This recognition is significant in Brazilian cities in the Atlantic Forest because this Biome holds most of the Brazilian population in a global biodiversity hotspot. In this regard, future scenario simulation models as cellular automata algorithms have been frequently used to simulate the negative impact of urban sprawl and land-use changes. Thus, this research proposes a new approach of assessing land-use changes in a Brazilian city in the Atlantic Forest Biome using geospatial techniques, cellular automata algorithms, and structural landscape metrics. The project aims to compare four future land-use/land-cover change scenarios: in two different years (2030 and 2050) under two greenspace scenario assumptions - firstly, considering the spatial policy and the other, considering constraints previously defined through multicriteria evaluation - for evaluating the importance of green infrastructure and to ensure environmental suitability in a growing urban landscape. Urban sprawl projections under various green infrastructure conservation scenarios are essential to help cities achieve the goals of the United Nations campaign - Race to Resilience - transforming urban areas into healthy, clean, safe, and resilient to the impacts of climate change. (AU)