Impact of rising temperatures on global mangrove secondary production

Abstract

Mangroves are productive environments that execute important ecological functions, such as nursery areas for marine life, shoreline protection, carbon sequestration and production of fisheries resources. Despite mangrove productivity being considered a valuable ecosystem service, studies are mainly focused on the investigation of primary production. However, most fish species of economic importance benefit from the secondary productivity of mangroves by feeding on consuming organisms at lower trophic levels. Secondary productivity may already be affected by the increase in temperature linked to climate change, as observed in other ecosystems. A source of evidence for this are studies that used indicators of secondary production from species of animals (i.e. growth, size, weight, survival, reproduction, etc.) in laboratory experiments with different temperatures. To investigate this issue, we will perform a literature review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of temperature rise associated with climate change on the secondary productivity of mangroves. Using published laboratory studies involving individual species, we will examine whether the increase in temperature predicted for the end of this century by IPCC general circulation models; RCP 8.5 scenario; will increase or decrease the secondary productivity of mangrove ecosystems worldwide. We also will investigate which main groups of mangrove animals are most threatened by climate change, giving special (but not sole) attention to species of economic importance. We expect to predict whether the global productivity of the focal mangrove fauna can be threatened by climate change and provide empirical support to future environmental management decisions. (AU)