Inequality and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Comparative Likelihood Analysis of the Implementation of Redistributive Policies

Abstract

Is it possible that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to the adoption of lasting public policies with a redistributive effect around the world? Beyond the expectations of theories such as those of Piketty (PIKETTY; SAEZ, 2007) and Schiedel (SCHEIDEL, 2017), the growing dissemination of basic income policies or eventual progressive tax reforms that result from the fiscal challenges arising from the expenses incurred in the pandemic, justify the exploration of this topic. I will seek to develop an analysis of the distributive issue in this context, not only in a careful analysis of the Brazilian case, with the Emergency Aid and imminence of tax reform, but also in a comparative way, aiming to understand global trends. The study of the consequences of the pandemic and public policies adopted for its mitigation is crucial for understanding the mechanisms for reducing inequality. In addition, as a result of the fiscal commitment resulting from the social expenditures carried out, the tax issue emerges as a central element of analysis, for its potential impact on the income and wealth of the highest percentiles of the population. For this reason, this project seeks to understand the effects of the pandemic on the probability of adoption of policies that reduce inequalities, giving central, but not exclusive, attention to tax policies. (BLUNDELL et al., 2020)