Local warming and landscape permeability as drivers of vegetation changes in rural forest patches

Abstract

Degradation of tropical forest remnants has been highlighted as a critical threat for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Based on scientific evidence and followed by growing public support, international agreements have been established to foster more sustainable land use patterns. Conciliating these environmental concerns with agricultural production requires a better understanding of agroecosystem functioning. Local climate changes and limited biological fluxes have been pointed as key factors of forest degradation. Land-use planning decisions must consider that these factors vary depending on the type of agricultural use. Yet, predicting the impact of each major agricultural use on tropical forest remnants is still rudimentary, requiring further investigation. This BEPE proposal aims at investigating the role of agricultural land use identity on the trajectories of remnant tree communities. Taking advantage of original geographical and biological datasets, we propose to quantify in rural Atlantic Forest remnants: (1) how tree communities respond to local climatic changes induced by major agricultural uses and (2) how agricultural matrix identity modifies the effect of landscape structure on the functional diversity of trees. Together, these assessments will ground additional insights on tropical agroecosystem functioning, substantiating parameters for predicting the impact of land use changes to rural Atlantic Forest's biodiversity and ecosystem services. This proposal complements the FAPESP Thematic Project "Wildlife in agricultural landscapes: patterns and processes" (17/01304-4).