Emissions inventory of greenhouse gases from transport, dispersion in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo

Abstract

This project seeks to develop a comprehensive bottom-up emissions inventory of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) for the State of São Paulo considering as major sources: vehicles, waste, biomass burning, industries and other sources. The expected result is a high spatial and temporal resolution emission inventory and concentrations from local to regional scales for different scenarios. Objectives: 1. identify the sources of GHG and Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP) in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo and São Paulo State; 2. develop an emissions inventory with high spatial and temporal resolution; 3. simulate GHG concentrations at the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo and São Paulo State at different scales; and 4. study impacts of different emissions scenarios. Methodology: sources of GHG and SLCP will be spatially identified and qualitative information will be obtained from different databases. The European emissions guidelines for developing emissions inventories will be used to identify the sources (EMEP). Consequently, the methodology of the same guidelines will be used to estimate emissions using the software EMEP (Ibarra-Espinosa 2020). The vehicular emissions will be estimated using the VEIN model (Ibarra-Espinosa et al. 2018b). VEIN, an open source software written in R and Fortran programming languages, has been downloaded more than 23K times and it is used in many parts of the world (Duarte et al. 2021; Ibarra-Espinosa et al. 2019, 2021; Pinto et al. 2021; Veratti et al. 2020). VEIN incorporates Brazilian emission factors adjusted with real-world tunnel measurements made in São Paulo (Nogueira et al. 2021). Furthermore, it will be used the Fixed Emissions Model (FEM) to estimate and process industrial emissions (Ibarra-Espinosa 2021). To estimate biomass burning emissions it will be applied the methodology with satellite images, similarly to the method presented by Freitas et al (2005) in a new software in R or Fortran. Other sources such as waste will be investigated applying the categorization and methods of AP42 (Thorneloe 2008). The WRF Greenhouse Gas model (Beck et al. 2011) will be used to simulate the concentrations of GHG. Emissions from vegetation photosynthesis and respiration will be included via VPRM-Preprocessor. For CH4 wetland emissions, it will be used Kalan et al (2002) and for termine, Sanderson et al (1996). Expected results: during the course of the project, we will obtain an emissions inventory of high spatial and temporal resolution for GHG and SLCP for the State of São Paulo, including a Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. The resulting inventory will be evaluated and compared with fuel sales and will have quality controls (Ibarra-Espinosa et al. 2020, 2021). The inventory will also be used to assess the city's impact on GHG and SLCP under different scenarios. Finally, we will disseminate the results to the community and decision makers, specifically to the Secretariat of Green (Municipality) and CETESB (State Government). (AU)