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Evaluation and adaptation of coffee productivity models to determine climate risk and management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change in Brazil

Grant number: 20/11465-8
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate
Effective date (Start): February 01, 2021
Effective date (End): January 31, 2022
Field of knowledge:Agronomical Sciences - Agronomy - Agricultural Meteorology
Principal researcher:Rubens Duarte Coelho
Grantee:Cleverson Henrique de Freitas
Home Institution: Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz (ESALQ). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Piracicaba , SP, Brazil

Abstract

Climate change will strongly affect the Agriculture and consequently the food, fiber and energy production. However, the magnitude of these impacts and how they will occur are still uncertain. These uncertainties, associated with the increased demand for food, including coffee consumption, require further studies on the quantification of the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. Coffee is one of the most consumed beverages in the world, with Brazil being the world's largest producer and exporter. In this sense, crop simulation models are useful tools, as they consider the interaction between multiple meteorological factors and the various crop growth and development processes. It allows them to estimate crop's productivity. Based on this, the hypothesis of this project is that the use of coffee crop simulation models, as long as they are properly adjusted, calibrated and evaluated, will be possible to identify the main causes of productivity losses. This will allow the development of strategies to reduce the impacts resulted from variability and climate change. For this, productivity data from several locations in all coffee producing regions in Brazil will be used in this project for the adaptation, calibration and evaluation of different coffee simulation models. Using the multi-model approach, will be estimated the crop productivity, assessed the models' sensitivity to variations in weather conditions and determined the climatic risk of different producing regions and areas of crop expansion in the current and future climate, considering different emission scenarios of greenhouse gases in the medium and long term. The results of this study will give insight to the parameters of the models and their applications in different management scenarios, assessment of climate risk, climate variability and impacts of climate change scenarios on coffee production at a national level, as well as propose management actions that can minimize such impacts. (AU)

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