Relationship among thermal variations, their predictability and the upper thermal limits of anuran larvae: an integrative approach

Abstract

Although impacts of Climate Change (CC) on biodiversity are evident at multiple levels of biological organization, ultimate consequences differ among taxa because of the diversity in species traits (e.g., natural history, physiology, behavior, plasticity, evolutionary potential) and responses necessary to persist under a changing climate. Considering the thermal components of climate, it is becoming clear that alterations with consequential effects on biodiversity go beyond central tendencies (e.g., average air temperature) and include different forms of temporal variations with complex spatial nuances. However, our understanding about the implications of the predictability of temperature variations for species responses to CC is less clear. Enhancing this understanding is the main goal of this proposal. A main tenet in this project is that the Upper Thermal Limits of tolerance (UTLs) and their plasticity, key organismal traits to withstand rising temperatures under CC, respond in an adaptive and predictable way to thermal variations and their predictability. Therefore, we shall test the hypothesis that daily variations of environmental temperatures and their predictability synergistically influence UTLs and their plasticity. We shall use larvae of anuran amphibians as model organisms and adopt an integrative approach to test adaptive and plastic responses in UTLs (patterns driven by processes). This integrative approach shall include: 1) analysis of climate data at different spatial and temporal scales; 2) a comparative study of UTLs determined in the field; and 3) a developmental plasticity study of UTLs in response to simulated scenarios of temperature variation and predictability in the laboratory. We shall rely on the likelihood and information theories for model fitting and selection, as well as for statistical inference. (AU)