Regional heat waves in the context of multiple scale combinations of meteorological systems

Abstract

Heat waves constitute a prolonged period with high temperatures potentially able to produce economic, biological and social impacts. The literature contains several papers covering a wide space-time scale of the meteorological systems involved, ranging from synoptic studies of particular cases to the exploration of perturbations tied to low-frequency dynamics. In fact, in a low-frequency disturbance that favors above-average temperatures, eventually a higher frequency disturbance may potentiate its effects, giving rise to heat waves. In this sense, this project aims to identify the heat waves in their areas of regional performance over South America and some other regions of the globe, identifying the patterns of teleconnections in the way they act to favor the extremes of high temperatures. For this purpose, this work aims to use reanalysis data to identify the homogeneous regions of high temperatures with a new methodology involving sensitivity maps, which will be compared to Cluster Analysis technique for validation. The characterization of heat waves will consider composites, Empirical Orthogonal Functions and the use of wavelets, in a multiscale also involving the relations with sea surface temperature as well as the soil humidity. Posteriorly, the results will be summarized in case studies of the most representative events, showing possible implications in future works and in the seasonal forecasts. (AU)