Development of predictive models for the dynamics of transmission and spatial dispersion of the sylvatic yellow fever in Brazil.

Abstract

The current sylvatic yellow fever outbreak in southeastern Brazil has caused a significant number of deaths in humans and non-human primates, including notifications in areas previously considered free of the disease, such as the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. The development of models to simulate and predict the transmission and dispersal dynamics of the yellow fever virus may be an alternative both for testing as for proposing new hypotheses about the ecology and epidemiology of the disease, as well as the ability to predict risk situations and identify priority issues to be investigated in empirical studies. Agent-Based Models have been used in many fields of science, given their potential to dynamically represent spatial heterogeneity, the complexity of interactions between individuals, and the patterns that emerge from such interactions. The present proposal aims at the development of Agent-Based Models to test hypotheses and predict the transmission behavior and dispersion of sylvatic yellow fever. Using an object-oriented programming language, a scenario will be developed in which the virus circulates between individual agents represented by vertebrate hosts and vectors of different environments. These models will be parameterized, validated and integrated to a Geographic Information System, allowing simulating the transmission dynamics on an explicit representation of the physical environment in which the viral activity has been observed. Hypotheses will be tested regarding the risk of re-urbanization of yellow fever and the role that humans play in the spread of the virus.