Impact of massive penetration of intermittent generation and energy storage devices on planning contracts of transmission

Abstract

The increase in the penetration levels of intermittent generators (e.g. photovoltaic generation) and of energy storage devices (e.g. batteries) in distribution networks will affect significantly the demand provided by the distribution company and, consequently, the techniques currently employed to predict the behavior of the load and to determine the Amount of Transmission System Usage at the points of interconnection with the transmission company. In Brazil, for instance, if the contracted demand is violated and there is subcontracting or over-contracting, the distribution company must pay fines to the transmission company. The main difficulty and novelty of this new distribution network scenario are the highly stochastic characteristics associated with the intermittent generation and with the operation of energy storage devices in the distribution network. In addition to the stochastic nature inherently associated with these technologies, the distribution company does not have previous knowledge over the number or the locations of the connections of photovoltaic generators and energy storage devices to the low voltage grid that will occur in a period (e.g. 1 year). In this context, this project fits within the scope of planning, with the objective of developing a new probabilistic methodology based on an optimization model to determine the optimal value of demand to be contracted by the distribution company in scenarios with deep penetration of photovoltaic generation and energy storage. This project will cope with uncertainties through stochastic analysis, which properly incorporates the uncertainties present in this planning problem. (AU)