Improvement of eucalyptus process-based simulations with APSIM model and its use for forest evaluations under present and future climate scenarios

Abstract

Eucalyptus is the most cultivated genus for reforestation in Brazil and provide renewable resources to produce pulp, paper and bioenergy. This genus is highly influenced by the weather conditions. Therefore, alternatives to mitigate the impact of variability and climate change on Eucalyptus yield are needed. The hypothesis of this project is that APSIM model can be suitable to estimate Eucalyptus yield in Brazil and to evaluate possible strategies to mitigate the effects of current and future climate on this reforestation. The aim of this study is to adapt, calibrate and evaluate the APSIM model for improving Eucalyptus yield simulations and use it to propose strategies for mitigating the effect of climate variability and change in Brazil. For this, experimental yield data from 2012 to 2017 of eight Eucalyptus clones distributed in 25 locations in Brazil will be used to adapt, calibrate and evaluate the APSIM model. Subsequently, historical series of meteorological data (current scenario) from other 25 different producing regions of Brazil will be used to evaluate the impact of climate variability and change on Eucalyptus yield. For the evaluation of future scenarios, five General Circulation Models and two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions will be used. From the results, it is intended to develop adaptation strategies to the Eucalyptus plantations in order to minimize the possible negative impacts on forest production.