Ecological Modeling of the Resistance Evolution of Spodoptera frugiperda on Bt Cotton Mediated by Seed Contamination and Temperature Increasing

Abstract

Seed contamination as well as the increase in temperature may result in a high risk of the resistance evolution of pests on Bt cultivars; however, this information - especially analyzed with the bio-mathematical model - is still considered incipient in neotropical conditions, inspiring and justifying further studies in that direction. In this regard, the current project intends to describe with computational simulations the resistance evolution of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Bt cotton. We will analyze with deterministic and stochastic models the frequency of the resistant individuals of S. frugiperda on Bt cotton varieties. Currently, in Brazil, or in similar conditions, the modeling of dispersion and resistance evolution is a necessary procedure to guide practitioners in the design of an effective resistance management program, constituting a tool capable of elucidating the failures or effectiveness of the technology according to the structure of the landscape. We intend to explain the reasons of controlling non-success of S. frugiperda with simulation, but the particularity of the present proposal is that we will use real data of movement obtained from automated video system, gene expression of caterpillar strains and larval dispersal in different refuge scenarios under field conditions. The biological data were collected with the support of the FAPESP Scholarships in Brazil - Doctorate (grant number: 15/20380-8) and with Research Projects - Thematic Grants (grant number: 14/16609-7). (AU)