Simulations of forest disturbances and land use change in the Amazon and possible impacts on the regional climate and rainfall in southeastern South America

Abstract

The characteristics of the terrestrial surface are strongly connected to the patterns of climatic circulation and climatic variability. Changes in land use affect the biophysical characteristics of the earth's surface. In the Amazon, the loss of forests contributes significantly to the reduction of precipitation in the continent, due to the decrease of the evapotranspiration, mainly during the dry season. The humidity of the Amazon is also important in agricultural production and in the agroforestry system in Southeast South America (SESA - Southeastern South America). The Inland surface model that is being developed in collaboration with several institutions (including INPE) aims to represent important biomes of South America such as the Amazon, the Cerrado and the Caatinga. Inland will be coupled to the CPTEC Atmospheric Global Circulation Model to simulate the interaction between biosphere and atmosphere. Using Inland, climate modeling and moisture recycling networks, we will study the influence of land use change and forest degradation in consequence from deforestation and fires on SESA precipitation. It is necessary to quantify the variation of the precipitation in the SESA, due to these effects of degradation of the Amazon forest. Still is necessary to quantify how the climatic changes and impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affect the forest (mortality, productivity and evapotranspiration). We hope this project will contribute to the understanding of SESA precipitation variation and the possible impacts on the Amazonian regional climate. (AU)