Climate change and anuran richness patterns in the Brazilian Cerrado: predictive models using the maximum entropy approach

Abstract

Ecological niche modelling is widely used among ecologists to generating areas of climatically suitable areas for species distribution, including in climate change scenarios. Then, with the intuit to contribute for efficient conservation actions, including future scenarios of climate change, we aim to elaborate predictive models of anuran species distribution in the Cerrado hotspot. Therefore, we will be able to explore how the climate change will potentially affect the anuran richness gradients along the Cerrado extent. Consequently, we will be able do identify probable areas of gain and loss in anuran species richness. Specifically, we will generate the climatically suitable areas of the c. 200 anuran species via Ecological Niche Modelling, using the principle of Maximum Entropy (MAXENT). We will then project the climatic niche of the species into different climate change scenarion by 2050. Further, we will overlap the predictive maps into a grid system of 50x50 km of the Cerrado original extent in order to identify the areas of probable gain and loss of species across different time scales.