SECTORIAL EVALUATION OF WATER USEIN BRAZIL: AN ANALYSIS OF COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM

Abstract

The problem of regional water scarcity in Brazil has intensified in recent years with climate change, population growth, siltation, population growth and misuse of water resources. This situation has favored the shortages of water, energy crisis, high tariffs, and other factors that culminate water shortage and low regional development. In terms of water availability, Brazil holds about 12% of freshwater reserves on the planet, where the Amazon region comprises 73% of water resources for only 4% of the population. This situation reflects the inequality of water availability in the country. According to the National Water Resources Plan (PNRH) the use of water for human consumption is one that should be prioritized, it is essential for all metabolic activities, in food preparation, personal hygiene, but is also used for regional development through its multiple use. In industry, the use of water may be linked to the production process, environment cleaning, among other purposes. The use in irrigated agriculture has distinct regional characteristics, crops, irrigation methods, management techniques, climate and other factors that lead the differences in water use. Thus, the research aims to analyze the demand for water resources in Brazil, considering the regional differences in the 26 states and the Federal District based on the year 2007 and make projections for 2020. To this end, it makes use of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model for 55 productive activities and 110 products. It is of great interest to evaluate the impacts on water consumption in key sectoral processes with emphasis on demand projections given to water supply in physical units (m³ / year), It ponto possible to project situations with water stress in regions and sectos, and adequately assess the discrepancy between supply and demand of future water that may lead to new shortages, water crises. The study will contribute to the preparation of the matrix of sectoral water resources to the product level, in physical units, as well as contribute in advancing the regional and sectorial studies of water use in computable simulations of future scenarios for Brazil.