Climate Change and fishery activity: projections of the exploitable stocks of the shrimps Xiphopenaeus kroyeri and Pleoticus muelleri for the north coast of São Paulo State

Abstract

The increase of the fishery fleet, both industrial and artisanal, over the past decades resulted in elevated exploitation of marine shrimps in the São Paulo State coast, leading to decreases in the landings of several commercially important species, such as the seabob shrimp Xiphopenaeus kroyeri, and expansion in demand for other, less attractive species, like the Argentine red shrimp Pleoticus muelleri. Furthermore, future climate change due to the constant increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (especially CO2), is expected to have large impact on oceanic environments and could lead to significant alterations in the distribution and abundance of several marine species. This project aims to develop statistical models correlating the present distribution and abundance of the two species above to environmental factors and fishery activity along São Paulo's northern coast. These models will then be used to project the future state of these resources over the next decades based global climate model predictions statistically downscaled for the São Paulo coast as well as estimated changes in fishery activity (increments, decreases or stabilizations). Current and historical environmental and fishery production data series, obtained from reports, bulletins, scientific papers and oceanographic and meteorological stations, will be used for model development and spatial downscaling. The models generated by this project could contribute in the establishment of sustainable policies and practices that take into account the potential impacts of fishing pressure and climate change on the seabob and Argentine red shrimps, species that have great economic relevance to the local coastal communities and to São Paulo's fishery sector as a whole.