Extreme lightning events in São Paulo: Cases observed and future scenarios

Abstract

The study of lightning is a topic that has been gaining significant attention in the scientific community , because from the monitoring periods of increased incidence of discharges can issue warnings characteristics such as intensity , duration and severity of storms , allowing preventive measures to be taken in short term, to minimize impacts of severe weather phenomena . Thus , the aim of this work is to investigate the atmospheric conditions associated with extreme events by lightning in the state of São Paulo . The data series of lightning networks RINDAT since 1999 ( cloud -to-ground discharges ) and BrasilDAT since 2011 ( discharge cloud -to-ground and intra - cloud) substantiate this research . The extremes of lightning will be selected by using the method of percentiles . For the analysis of weather conditions associated with these events, we used data from atmospheric reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions / National Center for Atmospheric Research ( NCEP / NCAR ) , radar and satellite images , and combinations of weather variables obtained by through numerical simulations of high spatial resolution mesoscale model Weather Research and Forecasting ( WRF ) . In addition , a study will be made of the possible influence of teleconnections in the number of weather systems generating events of intense electrical activity , and how these conditions may change due to climate change . In this research topic , will be used projections of future scenarios , obtained by the Brazilian Model of the Earth System ( MBST ) and regional climate models obtained from global models . With the end of the research , it is expected intrinsic information of the occurrence of severe lightning , as well as future projections of this phenomenon .