Essays on land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil.

Abstract

This research project aims to evaluate the economic impacts of the adoption of policies to control deforestation, based on voluntary commitments adopted by Brazil to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). More specifically, we intend to analyze how the Brazilian economy will respond to simulated policies and their implications on indicators of welfare and economic development. For this, it will be used the dynamic version of an applied general equilibrium model, bottom-up, adapted to Brazilian economy, TERM-BR. To achieve the objectives of this study, two methodological steps should be followed. The first is the expansion and improvement of the database model and the second is to continue the effort to model the changes in land use and forests, through transition matrices. This task poses itself as an important research challenge, which is a recent development in the literature. Once completed the steps above, it will be possible to evaluate the economic and social impacts of the adoption of climate policies to reduce emissions. Still, it will be possible to analyze the Brazilian pattern of spatial occupation in terms of the main economic activities developed in each region, as well as aggregate social costs associated with controlling deforestation, indicating which sectors, products and agents will be benefited or harmed by the implementation of policy scenarios.