Water footprint as a tool for ecosystem services valuation at watersheds under climate change

Abstract

This Project aims to propose a new model of water resources management towards integration the grey water footprint and ecohydrology for improvement of ecosystem services valuation related to the rehabilitation of watersheds under potential impact of climate change. The steps of the research are: 1) evaluation of limits and strengths of projects related to payment of hydrologic ecosystem services to minimize the vulnerability to impacts from climate change; 2) accounting of grey water footprint from monitoring quali-quantitative variables of river flows in watersheds with different land use covers; 3) linkage of environmental valuation with grey water footprint in watersheds under long-term scenarios; 4) modeling of water footprint sustainability through the assessment of control of erosion-and-sedimentary potential with best conservancy practices; and 5) proposal of trade-off policies of grey water footprint through payment of ecosystem services projects at the watershed scale. Field campaigns to collect dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand, nitrogen, phosphate, chlorine, pH, river discharge and average flow velocity at river cross sections are planned in the methodology. These field variables will be linked to existing database of water quality available at CETESB, SABESP, DAEE and ANA. The grey water footprint will be modeled with SWAT, thereby updating the quali-quantitative duration curves regionalized at the scale of drainage area of watersheds. With INPE/Eta model, future scenarios of temperature and precipitation will be incorporated to assess changing flow regimes affecting reference flows and pollution loads. Reference flows, Q7,10, Q95%, and environmental flows based on ELOHA method, will be researched to estimate changing pollution concentrations, ”c and the respective pollution removal efficiency, ”E. Reference scenarios called "Food & Energy Security" and "Ecotechnologies", and their combinations, will be computed in regard to climate change and land use towards time lines of years 2025, 2050 and 2100. Thus environmental services will be mapped and valuated through InVEST-NCP model. This research tool will be applied at scales of Piracicaba-Capivari-Jundiai river basins, UGRHI Nº 5 of Sao Paulo State, where the project "Produtor de Agua/PCJ" is valid, specifically at the catchments of Cancã, dos Pretos, Saltos e das Posses. A hydrologic monitoring through of PCD-Platform of Collecting Database, in partnership with ANA, SMA/CBRN, TNC and WWF will be installed at the watersheds. The schedule of this research includes a visiting internship at "Stanford University", USA, where InVEST-NCP was developed. This PhD research is related to the following projects: Thematic Research FAPESP 2008/58161-1 "Assessment of Impacts & Vulnerability to Climate Change in Brazil & Strategies for Adaptation Options" (CCST/INPE), INCLINE - INterdisciplinary CLimate INvEstigation Center-NapMC/USP, and Água Brasil FBB-ANA-WWF-Brasil-FIPAI/EESC-USP. (AU)