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Development of a fuzzy methodology for demand estimation in feeders of electrical energy distribution systems

Grant number: 12/12007-7
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Master
Effective date (Start): January 01, 2013
Effective date (End): July 31, 2014
Field of knowledge:Engineering - Electrical Engineering - Power Systems
Principal researcher:Rogério Andrade Flauzino
Grantee:Lucas Assis de Moraes
Home Institution: Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Carlos , SP, Brazil


This Research Project aims to develop a methodology based on Multilayer Fuzzy Inference Systems to estimate power demand values in a substation feeder. According to current Brazilian laws, buyers and sellers can participate in auctions for the purchase and sale of electricity, regulated by the Board of Electricity Trading (Câmara de Comercialização de Energia Elétrica). In these auctions, bilateral contracts are formalized, which define the amount of energy purchased or sold. However, there are financial losses to the buyer if the defined value for the next weeks is excessive or insufficient. Therefore, the main motivation for conducting this Research Project is to develop a tool to support the decision-making when contracting electricity through auctions. The power (active and reactive) demand forecasting will be done by analyzing past time series data. Older data with greater correlation with current data will be the inputs of the Fuzzy System, which will have as output a future demand value. It will be attempted to forecast the larger possible horizon, keeping the error rate below 6%, a value considered acceptable by the Ministy of Mines and Energy (Ministério de Minas e Energia). Thus, it is intended that this Research Project can generate innovations in the fields of intelligent systems, dynamical systems and electricity market. (AU)

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Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
FONSECA SOBRINHO, ANDRE SANCHES; FLAUZINO, ROGERIO ANDRADE; BARTOCCI LIBONI, LUISA HELENA; MARQUES COSTA, EDUARDO C.. Proposal of a fuzzy-based PMU for detection and classification of disturbances in power distribution networks. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL POWER & ENERGY SYSTEMS, v. 94, p. 27-40, . (12/21816-6, 12/12007-7, 11/17610-0)
Academic Publications
(References retrieved automatically from State of São Paulo Research Institutions)
MORAES, Lucas Assis de. Development of a fuzzy approach for power demand forecast in an electrical energy distribution system. 2014. Master's Dissertation - Universidade de São Paulo (USP). Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC/SBD) São Carlos.

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