Changes on soil carbon and nitrogen stocks due to the land use change in Para state: estimates and uncertanties

Abstract

Soil is the largest terrestrial pool of carbon and any change made in this compartment may enhance the global warming. Thus, the conversion of natural systems to other systems of land use is considered the main cause of C and N emissions to the atmosphere. However, there is a great variability in soil properties, climatic conditions and land use history of each region, so there is a number of uncertainties associated with estimates of C and N stocks of soil and mainly, to its changes. Therefore it is necessary to conduct uncertainty analysis to eliminate the interference of unknown parameters and develop an empirical analysis based on uncertainty estimates to simulate changes on C and N stocks so that results can be trusted. In this sense, this proposal aims to estimate changes in soil C and N stocks due to changes in land use and management systems in the state of Pará using region-specific data, and perform the analysis of uncertainty of these estimates by Monte Carlo method, which is adopted by the IPCC. To this end, we calculated the stocks of soil C and N to the main land use systems present in the eastern Amazon region, and will be performed to evaluate the uncertainties associated with each component (C and N reference usage data land and emission or removal factors) involved in estimating emissions of C and N, but also the total uncertainty. Based on the results obtained will be possible estimate changes on C and N stocks of soil due to land use changes in Santarém - PA region, through a range of multiple individual sites to a regional and national scale and therefore will be possible to report the issue and sinks of greenhouse gases and assist in choosing the best management practices for the region. (AU)