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Evolution of atmospheric conditions associated with intense rainfall in São Paulo: past observations and future projections in scenarios of climatic change

Grant number: 12/02066-6
Support type:Scholarships in Brazil - Scientific Initiation
Effective date (Start): April 01, 2012
Effective date (End): June 30, 2013
Field of knowledge:Physical Sciences and Mathematics - Geosciences - Meteorology
Principal researcher:Maria Assunção Faus da Silva Dias
Grantee:Ana Claudia Thome Sena
Home Institution: Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas (IAG). Universidade de São Paulo (USP). São Paulo , SP, Brazil

Abstract

The question is whether the atmospheric environment of rainfall extremes in the past in the region around the city of São Paulo is well reproduced by climate simulations, or what features are well represented, and whether these features change for future climate scenarios. Climate simulations of the recent climate will be analyzed from the point of view of the statistics of various indices of thermodynamic instability associated to extreme rainfall. The statistics of instability indices for the recent past climate will be compared to the same statistics for the future climate simulation scenarios to evaluate possible changes in the frequency of extremes.

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