Dynamic modeling of native vegetation in Piracicaba River basin and its effects on ecosystem services

Abstract

Studies from the Forestry Institute of São Paulo State (IF-SP) have shown that in the end of the 20th century the native forest cover of the state of SP had reached maximum level of forest loss and that from there on a period of increase and expansion had started. Law enforcement, inspection, economic benefits, and social pressure shown in the last years have contributed to the preservation and regeneration of the native vegetation cover in certain places of the state. This study proposes to model the dynamics of the native forest cover in the Piracicaba river basin in the state of São Paulo, to evaluate possible effects of these changes in ecosystem services related to infiltration and surface runoff and also on the actual landscape structure. To achieve the proposal set out in this research, dynamic models of native vegetation will be established. Will form the spatiotemporal basis of this study surveys of forest cover in thematic maps of the years 1990, 2000 and 2010 originated by the IF-SP. With the aid of specialized software in modeling and GIS, spatial and temporal models of the forest dynamics will be created considering scenarios that will be called optimistic, realistic, and status quo. An analysis taking into account the characteristics of the watersheds, agricultural and socio-economic patterns as well as climate data and soil will be produced to explain the dynamics found in past and future. Also to be evaluated is the change detection encountered and the characteristics and metrics in this landscape. Finally there will be hydrologic modeling to determine the influence of increasing forest area and its location in the infiltration and runoff in each watershed according to each proposed scenario. For this, a thematic map dated from 2003/04 will be used to ensure correct modeling. (AU)