Impact of climate change on the hydrologic regime of streams in Southeastern Brazil

Abstract

This study is used the hydrological model of Fu (1981) based on the hypothesis Budyko (Budyko, 1948, 1974) relating to climate change and the impact on the streams flow from multiple locations in southeastern Brazil. The hypothesis is that this model can be validated with local data of southeastern Brazil, enabling the identification of critical factors to the stability of the water production in micro-watersheds and the prediction of water balance behavior in changing conditions land use and climate change. Additionally the quality of surface water will be studied, since changes in hydro-biogeochemistry watersheds resulting from inadequate management practices are aggravating factors of this quality deterioration and may limit the use of water resources. The objectives of this study are: (i) to calibrate and validate the model of Fu with climate data and flow of existing watersheds in southeastern Brazil; (ii) simulate future climate scenarios and calculate the impacts of global warming on the hydrological regime of watersheds in southeastern Brazil; (iii) conduct a regional mapping, characterizing and establishing hydrological indicators of responsiveness to management in micro-watersheds; (iv) improve the Fu model by inserting biological variables such as leaf area of vegetation surrounding the watersheds, to become more sensitive to short-scale simulations of time and for small and medium watersheds and (v) complement diagnosis of responsiveness to management in watersheds through hydro-biogeochemistry evaluation, including analysis of dissolved and particulate matter transported by waterways permanent and intermittent water. (AU)