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Study of the risk factors to transmission of visceral leishmaniasis in the state of São Paulo.


The magnitude of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been increased in the state of São Paulo (SP) since 1998, assuming characteristics of an emerging injury due to their dispersion state. It has been occurring in urban areas with high population density. It is necessary to expand the knowledge about the risk factors for its occurrence and dispersion. Objectives: 1- Evaluate the temporal and spatial evolution of the VL in SP, we are going carry out spatial analysis. It will be considered outcome: incidence of VL, prevalence of Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis and vector presence in 645 cities by year of detection, between 1997 to 2013. The analysis will be associated the macro-environmental factors, such as isotherms, altitude, population density, density canine and highways; 2- Investigate the factors associated with the transmission of VL in municipalities with different epidemiological situations: i) Araçatuba, with older transmission, where the disease has an endemic behavior and have higher incidences on the outskirts of the city; ii) Votuporanga, a recent with cases distributed throughout the county , and with epidemic transmission characteristics. For this objective, we are going accomplishment spatial analysis methodologies and multiple regression models. The dependent variables are: the incidence of VL, canine prevalence and vector density and are independent variables: socioeconomic, demographic, environmental and land use parameters. The spatial unit is the census tract. With this study, is expected to further our understanding of the factors that determine the distribution pattern of the disease in the time and space, as well as identify risk factors for disease transmission, including those related to adaptation and expansion of vector. (AU)

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