Environmental and socioeconomic impacts associated with the production and consumption of sugarcane ethanol in south central Brazil

Abstract

This research project intends to cover a wide range of topics related to the impacts of the sugarcane ethanol production and consumption. It initially aims to map the sugarcane cultivated areas in South Central Brazil, so as to support the generation of scenarios related to plausible spatial patterns for the sugarcane crops expansion in the short- and medium-terms. These scenarios will drive biosphere-atmosphere interaction models, designed to assess physical-chemical changes in the atmosphere related to the conversion of natural vegetation cover, agricultural crops, and pasture land into sugarcane culture. The quantitative outcomes of these models in terms of green-house gases, toxic primary or secondary gases, and aerosols will be used to estimate the corresponding impacts of such land cover changes in human health. In addition to this, econometric and economic models will be conceived to analyze the resulting changes of the massive production and consumption of sugarcane ethanol in the urban network and infrastructure, in the natural environment assets, in the social well-being, in the jobs market and related scientific-technological scenario, in the agri-business economics, in agricultural financing policies, in the commodities market and food security (at national level), and in the trade balance. The knowledge gained with this work will shed light on the complex relationships among the sugarcane production and consumption and their related environmental and socioeconomic impacts, providing thus a strategic contribution to public policies and actions aiming at maximizing the benefits of the sugarcane ethanol and minimizing at the same time its undesirable side effects and externalities. (AU)