Climate change impacts on the land cover and use in Pernambuco: data generation to subside public decisions

Abstract

The current proposal seeks to develop coordinated scientific and technological activities between institutions and researchers from Pernambuco and São Paulo states. The objective of the project is to evaluate the impacts of projected climate changes on the carbon and nitrogen balances and the productivity of the main crops and native vegetation within the different regions of Pernambuco. The proposal has two focal research areas, observational and modeling, with the following research goals: i) map the current land use and cover of the state of Pernambuco at the 1: 1 00.000 scale; ii) quantify and map the carbon stocks in soil and vegetation in Pernambuco; iii) create a plant and soil carbon and nitrogen stable isotope data base at the State, for selected key native ecosystems within a precipitation transect; iv) measure CH4, N2O e CO2 fluxes at different and correspondent levels, within a instrument Eddy-covariance site at the ‘Semi-Árido’ region (Caatinga), looking at soil, vegetation and entire ecosystem (carbon balance and GHG emissions from soils); v) quantifythe carbon balances in three different land cover situations (caatinga, pasture and agriculture), with eddy-covariance techniques; vi) construct scenarios from the regional models, to the present climate (1961-1990), and compare with the available data to Pernambuco; vii) draw scenarios for the 2010-2100 time frame for Pernambuco; viii) climate scenarios, in several time slices, with different atmospheric CO2 concentration and land use changes; ix) use the Century model to evaluate the climate change impacts on soils and ecosystem productivity within agricultural, pasture and Caatinga areas for the 2010-2100 time frame; x) use the IBIS model to investigate the atmosphere-biophere interactions and carbon balances for Pernambuco, including simulations considering climate changes. The synergy intended during the planning of this project is extremely rich, since the complementary skills of the research team and institutions will support important capacity building activities, including young researchers and students from all institutions. There will be a strong effort on identifying vulnerabilities, aiming to subsidize decision makers concerning adaptation strategies. (AU)