Structural optimization under uncertainty and risk

Abstract

Structural systems are subject to a number of uncertainty sources, like the epistemic stochastic behavior of structural loads and the variability of material resistance. The main consequence of uncertainty to the performance of structural systems is the possibility (or probability) of failure. This probability, associated to the negative consequences of failure (accidents, injury, death, environmental damage and monetary loss) composes the risk of failure. This research project addresses the study of structural optimization in the presence of uncertainty and risk. This requires a quantitative evaluation of failure probabilities and a monetary quantification of the consequences of failure. In the design of structural systems, the goals of economy and safety generally compete with each other. The optimization of structural risk allows this compromise to be addressed explicitly, and the optimum safety level to be found. The project presents, in broad terms, the formulation of structural reliability and risk optimization problems, and the proposed approach to the problem. The project presents the challenges to be overcome and the expected results. Some application examples are also presented based on the applicant's former experience. This research project has direct application to several problems related to Brazil's technological development, including the optimization of civil, off-shore and aeronautic structures. (AU)