Return and risk of temporary crops in succession systems at Sao Paulo State, 2005

Abstract

Farmers from Sao Paulo state traditionally use monoculture due economic and management reasons and for this reason 98% of cultivated area is under monoculture. In cases that use succession crops two important matters affect farmers’ decisions. Installation costs of additional crop vis-à-vis the additional income and the risk of the production since many succession systems are grown in winter time and may have negative effect on crop yield due less favorable climate conditions.The aim of this work is to evaluate economic return and risk to install combination of annual crops especially in succession systems (summer crops followed by winter crops) common at Sao Paulo state.Six succession systems will be analyzed: succession of summer soybeans in conventional system followed by winter corn in minimum tillage system – Orlandia’s EDR; succession of summer soybeans in no till system followed by winter corn in no till system – Assis’ EDR; succession of irrigated winter beans and irrigated summer corn both in no till system – Sao Joao da Boa Vista’s EDR; succession of summer soybeans in conventional system followed by winter grain sorghum in minimum tillage system – Orlandia’s EDR; succession of summer cotton in conventional system followed by winter irrigated beans in conventional system – Sao Joao da Boa Vista’s EDR and succession of irrigated winter potato in conventional system and irrigated summer corn – Sao Joao da Boa Vista’s EDR.The Monte Carlo method or the stochastic simulation will be used because works with random elements that refers to risk variations of certain variables. Three variables will be used: price, yield and production costs. Both prices product and input will be deflationed by the IGPM based on March 2006. Although it is not possible to use the results shown to preview future economic results the research can give support either for farmer’s decision make and also to formulate public politics to reduce agriculture risk. (AU)