Nature-based solutions for adapting to extreme hydrological events

Abstract

Climate projections indicate that the state of São Paulo will cope with the effects of climate change in several ways. On the one hand, projections point to warming of the atmosphere and all models indicate a reduction in the duration of cold waves, as well as an increase in the duration of heat waves. On the other hand, in relation to annual precipitation and related extreme events, while there is no consensus trend between the models, a trend towards a drier climate with annual reductions in precipitation is significant. In all scenarios, climate change is expected to continue to worsen environmental and urban problems and increase risks, especially for communities that already live in vulnerable conditions. In order to increase the state's resilience to climate change, the state government recently launched the Climate Action Plan (Plano de Ação Climática - PAC). The PAC is considered an investment plan in strategic areas related to the state's production and service infrastructure. It seeks to contribute to reducing social and regional inequalities, aimed to reach the net carbon emissions to zero. In 2024, the São Paulo state is preparing to launch its Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (Plano Estadual de Adaptação e Resiliência Climática - PEARC), with the objective of advancing adaptive actions in five strategic thematic sectors: biodiversity, one health, food security, water security and coastal zone. Considering this context, this proposal of post-doc research, linked to the Biota Síntese Project, seeks to analyze the interactions and influence of green infrastructure on adaptation, with particular attention to the impacts associated with extreme hydrological events (e.g. problems related to water security, such as droughts and floods) in the state of São Paulo. With a special focus on the state's urban areas (considering that 96% of São Paulo's population lives in cities), the post-doc research will analyze, for different climate change scenarios, the impact of green areas and nature-based solutions (NbS) on ecosystem services regulation, capture and storage of water. This analysis will involve: (i) mapping climate vulnerability at different scales (municipalities, metropolitan regions, macrometropolis of São Paulo, state of São Paulo) and for different social groups; (ii) the assessment of adaptive capacity at these different scales, through indicators and data spatialization; (iii) the feasibility assessment of interventions aligned with nature-based solutions (NbS) at these different scales; and (iv) the proposal of NbS and urban planning projects to face extreme hydrological events. These analyzes will also take into account issues related to climate and environmental justice and green gentrification. The results will provide inputs for the development of climate adaptation strategies in the state of São Paulo, in particular for three strategic sectors of PEARC: biodiversity, water security and coastal zone. (AU)