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Investigation of the climatic and landscape variations effects on the vectors and on the spatial and temporal dynamics of sylvatic yellow fever and autochthonous malaria in fragments of the Atlantic Forest in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract

The most recent outbreak of sylvatic yellow fever (YF) has caused a significant number of human cases and epizootics in non-human primates (NHP) in the Atlantic Forest region of southeastern Brazil, including notifications in populated areas, before considered free of the disease. In these areas, malaria plasmodia also circulate between PNH and humans and, like the YF virus, are transmitted between hosts mainly by vectors of wild habits. This proposal aims to investigate the effect of landscape and climate on the occurrence and abundance of vectors and on the dynamics of transmission and spatial dispersal of sylvatic YF and autochthonous malaria in fragments of Atlantic Forest in the regions of Vale do Paraíba and North Coast of the state of São Paulo. Entomological collections will be performed in places with a history of malaria and in which there has been recent viral activity of YF. Metrics of composition, configuration and connectivity of the landscape will be measured and the predictive relationship between these variables with the occurrence of human cases, epizootics in PNH and the presence, abundance and natural infectivity of mosquitoes of the genera Haemagogus, Sabethes, Aedes, Psorophora and Anopheles will be investigated. The effect of regional climatic and phytophysiognomic variations on the richness, composition and abundance of vectors of YF and malaria will be investigated, comparing areas along a range that comprises the Serra da Mantiqueira, the Vale do Paraíba, the Planalto de Paraitinga/Paraibuna and the Serra do Mar North Coast of the state. Agent-based computational models will be developed to test hypotheses and predict the transmission and dispersal behavior of sylvatic YF and autochthonous malaria in the study areas. These models will be integrated into a Geographic Information System, allowing to simulate the dynamics of transmission over an explicit representation of the physical environment. It is intended to generate information that will support the determination of priority areas for surveillance and allocation of resources in campaigns for the prevention and control of these zoonoses. (AU)

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