Deterministic optimization, reliability and risk analyzes for earth slopes

Abstract

Geotechnical engineering standards and practices are based on deterministic methods, although it is internationally accepted that uncertainties are present in these analyses. The safety factors (FS) used are an indirect acceptance of this uncertainty. The use of higher values represents greater uncertainties in the models used and in the stability of the studied structure. In this case, the main problem of the research project will be the study of uncertainties in the properties of the materials and the stresses on the earth's slopes. The project consists of the numerical evaluation of the performance of earth slopes considering the effects of uncertainties and the variation in load requests, to evaluate the effects on the analysis of structural reliability and the associated risks. The optimization of land slopes taking into account the uncertainties will be addressed to compare the differences in the geometries of the deterministic, probabilistic, and risk criteria. To determine the resistant properties of the materials, a complementary bibliography will be used and laboratory and field tests will be carried out, when possible and necessary. Land slopes will be numerically modeled in deterministic and probabilistic terms. In deterministic modeling, the land slope will be studied numerically for different requests using different software. From the deterministic analyses, the probabilistic analyses (reliability, optimization, and risk analyses) will be performed using programming codes in FORTRAN, Python, Maplesoft or Matlab language to be coupled with the deterministic software. The final stage of the study will be characterized by the evaluation of the land slope in deterministic, probabilistic, and risk terms, the fusion of the criteria will help to a better analysis and definition of the stability criteria of the structure. Based on the study, articles will be submitted to magazines and congresses to disseminate the research carried out. (AU)