Water security in municipalities in paraiba: an integrated modeling of climate variability and natural and anthropic dynamics

Abstract

In the Northeast region, the population in urban centers has grown disorderly in recent decades, which has led to more significant pressure on natural resources, especially water resources, which are increasingly used and often without management and control suitable for agricultural activities and human consumption. Consequently, this region is vulnerable to climate variability and changes due to natural variations associated with oceanic and anthropogenic conditions, resulting from the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs), changes in land use and cover (agriculture activities and expansion of urban occupations). In addition, climate projections indicate a probability of a decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperature. In this scenario of a potentially drier region, the role of water resources management is crucial, having seen the last major event of extreme and prolonged drought (2012-2017) recorded. Although scientific advances in recent decades have enabled an understanding of the climate system and contributed to understanding climate variability in the northeastern semi-arid region, doubts regarding the synergy of regional impacts resulting from land use and the effects of global climate change on the present and future climates remain. Therefore, an important question raised in the scientific community for one of the most relevant water supply systems in the region is: "How do climate variability, the increase in GHGs, and changes in the use and coverage of the soil can affect the water availability of the Poções-Epitacio Pessoa water system?". In this context, the objective of the project is to model in an integrated way the climate variability and the dynamics of the natural and anthropogenic processes that occur in the region of the Paraíba River and the Taperoá River, also considering the water supply coming from the São Francisco River Integration Project with the Northern Northeast Hydrographic Basins (PISF), aiming to identify the influence of these variables on the runoff and sediments that flow into the Poções-Epitácio Pessoa water system (or Boqueirão reservoir) and, consequently, on the water security of cities that depend (directly or indirectly) on water from this source. (AU)