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Improvement of public transport between suburbs and city center in large urban agglomerations - TRAMA

Abstract

The air quality related diseases represent unprecedented global health crisis and the effects may be associated to environmental and socio-economic factors. Traffic-related atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases and toxic air pollutants are a serious environmental problem that affects climate change and air quality in megacities. In São Paulo, Brazil, the air quality related mortality has been growing last forty years as in other megacities and about 88% of air pollution comes from vehicles. São Paulo is one of the largest cities in the world with more than 12 million inhabitants, a fleet of about 8 million vehicles and high pollutant concentrations. As in many other cities in the world, social inequalities are evident in the city and there is need to promote mass transit infrastructures. This project will study the relationship between mortality in São Paulo due to cardio-respiratory diseases and its relationship with demographic density, with family income, with the use of public transport and with atmospheric pollution for the long-term period between 1980-2020. It is expected that the main results of the project will show that generally passenger kilometers, commuting times and air quality diseases increase with residential distance from the city center, and thus, with decreasing residential density. Researches show that PM2.5 concentrations are positively correlated with air quality related diseases. Peripheric regions with high urban densities are expected to have higher mortality rates and long-distance frequent trips that can contribute to develop the diseases in the long-term basis. This project aims to develop a methodology using an econometric model for vehicular activities and socio-economic parameters and demonstrate its applicability to urban agglomerations. This model will also allow identifying hot spots of air pollution and poor air quality with a fine spatial and temporal resolutions. This proposal pretends to find non-linear relationships between long-term transport mobility data, sociodemographic parameters and cardio and respiratory diseases. Large biases in regional studies that rely on pollution enhancement as a linear predictor of disease growth based on dose response relationships are expected. This work will provide a basis for establishing sound climate change policies in other areas such as public health and urban planning. (AU)

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