Decision support for the implementation of payment for ecosystem services projects related to water, carbon and biodiversity: Paraíba do Sul and Vale do Ribeira

Abstract

Studies worldwide point to the urgency of actions for the natural ecosystems conservation and restoration to guarantee the provision of ecosystem services. However, command and control instruments such as the "Native Vegetation Protection Law" in Brazil are not enough to guarantee the protection and restoration of ecosystems in order to protect their services. The Atlantic Forest, in particular, is already under serious threat and requires ambitious native vegetation restoration goals to protect and restore its ecosystem services. Thus, Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs are essential to ensure the protection of biodiversity and the control of the climatic and hydrological systems in the biome. However, spatially and temporally discontinued PES programs can compromise their effectiveness, requiring strategic planning for their implementation. In this context, this project aims at developing a spatial model to support decision making in identifying priority areas for the implementation of PES programs based on environmental and socioeconomic factors. Priority areas will be outlined where benefits are maximized in three spheres: biodiversity, water and carbon, and that incorporate socioeconomic variables, evaluating the potential for economic return and the intention of participating in the programs by farmers. For this purpose, three maps of priority areas will be generated, one for biodiversity, one for water and one for carbon. Maps will be generated based on criteria selected by Participatory Technique (consultation with experts and decision makers, as well as the literature review) that represent landscape attributes related to the respective ecosystem services. Information from these three maps will be aggregated into a single one, representing the potential areas and actions for the three ecosystem services. Finally, this final product will be evaluated together with landtenure and land use information from rural properties, including data on deficit of native vegetation or surplus, pastures of low agricultural suitability, regeneration potential, data from the "Nascentes" Program, priority areas of the basin committees or other information related to land use that are not criteria. After that, we will select focal rural properties, used to generate PES implementation scenarios that will be compared with a counterfactual scenario based on environmental and economic variables, as well as selection of farmers for interviews. Farmers will be interviewed to assess the perception of landowners already enrolled in the PSE program and landowners potentially benefiting from future programs. Private PES investors will also be interviewed to assess the intention and preferences in implementing private PES. All these results will be used to outline a strategic plan for decision makers to implement new public and private PES programs, with a focus on the "Conexão Mata Atlântica" Program. (AU)