Mathematical models describing the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The objective of this project is to propose new mathematical models to describe the COVID-19 pandemic, which will be valid for different regions of the world, at different territorial levels (countries, states, municipalities). An automatic methodology to calibrate the models, without requiring intervention from experts, will be proposed, such that the analysis could be performed even in regions with limited financial resources. New techniques for trend analysis will be developed, in order to provide relevant information to health authorities. Predictions will be performed concerning the future behavior of the pandemic, with special focus on the number of nursing beds and intensive care units (ICUs). The models to be proposed will be such that they may be generalized to other epidemics in the future. The analyses will use information from the websites of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Johns Hopkins University, São Paulo State Department of Health and Brasil.io Project. The results will be assessed through theoretical analyses, comparisons with similar results from the literature and, mainly, comparison between simulated and real results. Articles will be published in journals and conferences. At least two master's theses will be supervised. (AU)