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Tracking the community-wide spread of SARS-CoV-2: outbreak size, transmission dynamics, clinical outcomes of infection, and duration of naturally acquired antibody responses in an Amazonian town


SARS-CoV-2 has now spread globally and poses a major challenge for low- and middle-income countries, where local health infrastructure can be quickly overwhelmed. This proposal builds upon ongoing, FAPESP-supported field research to address the microepidemiology and control of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Mâncio Lima, an urban community in the Amazon. The overarching goal is translating field-collected data into evidence to guide COVID-19 control in one of the poorest regions of Brazil. We hypothesize that a large proportion of local SARS-CoV-2 infections will go unnoticed, and apparently healthy virus carriers may continue spreading the infection through their routine social interactions but will eventually eliminate the pathogen and become immune to reinfection or at least to severe COVID-19. To test this hypothesis, we will: (a) use serial antibody assays to detect seroconversion events, retrospectively estimate the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak size and identify risk factors associated with seroconversion; (b) identify personal interactions and shared spaces, such as the household, workplace, schools, and churches, that have contributed the most to SARS-CoV-2 transmission; (c) estimate the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with mild or no symptoms, which remained undiagnosed, and the proportion of those leading to clinically manifest COVID-19, resulting in health facility visits and even hospitalization, and (d) determine the proportion of individuals found to be seropositive shortly after the outbreak that will have detectable anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies up to one year later. (AU)

Articles published in Pesquisa FAPESP Magazine about the research grant:
Una ciudad convertida en laboratorio 
A town turned laboratory 
The uncertainty of herd immunity 
La incertidumbre acerca de la inmunidad colectiva 
Articles published in Agência FAPESP Newsletter about the research grant:
Articles published in other media outlets (0 total):
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Scientific publications
(References retrieved automatically from Web of Science and SciELO through information on FAPESP grants and their corresponding numbers as mentioned in the publications by the authors)
NICOLETE, VANESSA C.; RODRIGUES, PRISCILA T.; JOHANSEN, IGOR C.; CORDER, RODRIGO M.; TONINI, JULIANA; CARDOSO, MARLY A.; DE JESUS, JAQUELINE G.; CLARO, INGRA M.; FARIA, NUNO R.; SABINO, ESTER C.; CASTRO, MARCIA C.; FERREIRA, MARCELO U. Y Interacting Epidemics in Amazonian Brazil: Prior Dengue Infection Associated With Increased Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Risk in a Population-Based Cohort Study. Clinical Infectious Diseases, v. 73, n. 11, p. 2045-2054, DEC 1 2021. Web of Science Citations: 3.
JOHANSEN, IGOR C.; RODRIGUES, PRISCILA T.; TONINI, JULIANA; VINETZ, JOSEPH; CASTRO, MARCIA C.; FERREIRA, MARCELO U. Cohort profile: the Mancio Lima cohort study of urban malaria in Amazonian Brazil. BMJ OPEN, v. 11, n. 11 NOV 2021. Web of Science Citations: 0.

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