Ministerial Survival in the Southern Cone Foreign Policy

Abstract

The project seeks to analyze the relevance of systemic and domestic factors in the pattern of survival of the foreign ministers of the Southern Cone from 1945 to the present day, comparing foreign policy with the areas of economy, health and education. Collaborating with a growing foreign policy literature whose unit of analysis is individual leadership, we aim to build an unprecedented database with all the ministers of foreign policy, economics, education and health of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. Through Cox regressions we want to test the effect of systemic variables such as the Cold War, diplomatic proximity with the US, and domestic factors such as membership of the president's party, political regime and presidential popularity in the longevity of the post of minister. In addition, we seek to understand if there is a difference between foreign policy and domestic politics in administrative stability, comparing foreign policy with public policies that are close to the citizen. This project seeks to contribute empirically to the understanding of the stability of the Southern Cone foreign policy leaders, a crucial element in the formulation and implementation of a coherent policy in the long term. (AU)