Brazilian yield-gap atlas: assessing the potential for sustainable intensification of Brazilian agriculture

Abstract

Global population will peak 9.7 billion by year 2050, representing a 30 percent increase relative to today's population. At the same time, consumption of livestock and dairy products will increase as a result of higher income per capita. Altogether, this will lead to a 50-70% increase in food demand Brazil has a comparative advantage to help meet global food demand due to plentiful land and water resources. However, the rate of increase in average farmer yields has been slow and average yields have remained well below highest yields reported by progressive farmers and those measured in research stations. Likewise, there are increasing concerns about possible conversion of grassland and rainforest to crop production. Hence, it is crucial to determine the degree to which Brazil can increase crop production on existing cropland area through sustainable intensification of cropping systems. It is also essential to determine how much extra grain production will be potentially available for other industries, and, eventually, to be exported. The overall objective of the proposal is to quantify how much extra food Brazil can produce on existing cropland area and identify pathways to realize this potential through sustainable crop intensification. It for major crops for the entire producing area in Brazil; Identify the explanatory causes for yield gaps; Propose interventions for closing the existing yield gaps; Develop a framework for quantifying the potential livestock production in Brazil. (AU)